Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have monopolized the last six men’s singles Grand Slam titles. Dating back to the start of last season, Alcaraz has won two French Opens and Wimbledon. Sinner has won two Australian Opens and the U.S. Open.
Other guys have come close–sort of–during this stretch. Daniil Medvedev had a two-set lead over Sinner in the 2024 Aussie Open final; Alexander Zverev led Alcaraz two sets to one in the 2024 Roland Garros championship match.
At the recent French Open, however, it might as well have been a two-horse race the entire time. Nobody took a set off Sinner prior to the final, while Alcaraz’s return trip to the title match did not include any five-setters. The show they put on in the final–won by the second-ranked Spaniard 4-6, 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(3), 7-6(10-2) after five hours and 29 minutes–made another statement about their superior level compared to the rest of the tour.
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There is some good news for everyone else, however, when it comes to Wimbledon. Margins are generally a lot smaller on grass than they are on clay. Points are shorter, service breaks are fewer, and matches in general are much more competitive–with sets frequently decided by tiebreakers.
So, are Alcaraz and Sinner beatable at the All-England Club? Maybe; maybe not. Alcaraz has lifted the trophy in SW19 twice in a row, beating Novak Djokovic in each of the last two finals. Sinner has reached at least the quarterfinals three straight years, including the semis in 2023.
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Unsurprisingly, Djokovic is listed as the third favorite behind Alcaraz and Sinner. The 38-year-old Serb is a 24-time major champion, with seven of those titles coming in London. Despite obviously being somewhat past his prime at this point, he has still been to the Wimbledon final each of the last two seasons. He has not lost at the AELTC prior to the championship match since 2017.
The fourth favorite is Great Britain’s own Jack Draper. The 23-year-old has soared to No. 4 in the world, but he will need a big result next week at Queen’s Club to maintain that ranking and secure a top-four seed at Wimbledon. That would guarantee him avoiding Alcaraz and Sinner until at least the semifinals.
Arguably the only other player with a realistic chance to lift the trophy is Alexander Zverev, German national hope, who is listed as the fifth favorite and is yet to win his first GS trophy despite being in the Final for three times since 2020.
